When Hezbollah went
to war with Israel in 2006, estimates suggest it had approximately 13,000
short-range rockets. Now it could have more than 100,000, including weapons
with greater accuracy, range and payloads.
Hezbollah has acquired
the Russian-made SA-17 "Buk," a medium-range air defense missile
originally sold to Syria that has a range of 31 miles and can target aircraft
flying at altitudes of 78,000 feet.
The SA-17, which Israel
went to great lengths to prevent Hezbollah from acquiring, represents the
Lebanese group's most potent air defense weapon and puts all Israeli aircraft
within reach.
Israel also says
Hezbollah is constructing bases in Syria to store missiles — possibly Iranian
Shabab-1, Shabab-2 and Fateh-110 ballistic missiles, which puts Israel fully
within striking range.
These developments
represent a growing strategic threat for Israel. Add to it the possibility of
Hezbollah establishing a presence in the Golan and the situation becomes
especially troubling.
Israel captured the
Golan Heights from Syria in 1967 during the Six-Day War and has
occupied it since, effectively annexing it in 1981. International law
officially recognizes the territory as Syrian, as do Israel's closest allies
such as the United States, Britain and France.
There has always been a
belief that Israel would return the Golan to Syria — with which it technically
remains at war — in return for a peace deal and normalization of relations,
similar to Israeli peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan.
During U.S.-brokered
peace talks in
1999, Israel offered to return most of the Golan to Syria. However, there has
never been genuine approval among the Israeli public or its political and
military leaderships to withdraw from the Golan.
In the buildup to the
Geneva talks over Syria, Syrian President Bashar-al-Assad again
signaled a demand for discussions on the Golan but Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu declared: "Israel will never leave the Golan
Heights."
Years earlier, Israeli
leader Yitzhak
Rabin suggested that withdrawal from the Golan was
"unthinkable, even in times of peace," saying it would be tantamount
to "abandoning Israel's security."
With elevations of
6,000 feet in its north and covering 695 square miles, the Golan Heights is of
great strategic importance. It extends like a finger to overlook northern
Israel, northern Jordan, southern Lebanon and southern Syria.
The Golan is also a
vital fresh water source — the headwaters of the Jordan River lie within it and
it feeds the Sea of Galilee and Yarmuk River. The 1999 Israeli-Syrian peace
talks failed because Israel was unprepared to withdraw to pre-1967 borders,
which would give Syria control up to the Sea of Galilee, which is considered by
Israel as its most important fresh water source.
Israeli-occupied Golan,
however, has become more important than just a heavily fortified buffer zone
with Syria. It has more than 20,000 Israelis living in dozens of illegal
settlements scattered around its southern approaches.
Before being seized by
Israel in 1967, the Golan was populated by 130,000 Syrians. Israeli studies estimate
the territory could accommodate 1 million people if properly developed. More
than 40 percent of wines Israel exports are produced in the Golan, as are up to
half of certain vegetables and fruit feeding Israel. With its climate and
natural beauty, the Golan has developed an important local tourism industry.
The Syrian civil war
has brought the Golan back into focus as the small Syrian-controlled side became
a ground for clashes between the Assad regime and rebel groups such as Jabhat
Fateh al-Sham — the rebranded al-Nusra Front. The Golan is from where Israel
has been treating anti-Assad fighters, including JFS and al-Qaida, so they can
return and fight Hezbollah, thereby creating a buffer.
Hezbollah wants to
assist the Assad regime in retaking restive areas south of Damascus from
opposition fighters, which Israel aids. U.N. forces have observed people and
cargo transfers across the Golan cease-fire line as well as Israeli military
interactions with Syrian fighters. Hezbollah also says Israel is prodding JFS
to infiltrate the Lebanese border toward its strongholds in the south.
Hezbollah and Iran are
mainly concerned with clearing the Golan — just 37 miles south of Damascus,
providing a vantage point for monitoring movements — of anti-Assad fighters.
If Hezbollah can
develop an effective front in Israeli-occupied Golan with its evolving
capabilities and tactics, just its psychological effects would generate
economic and social repercussions.
The Israel-Hezbollah
battle in Syria has been far from indirect — Israeli jets have conducted dozens
of strikes against Hezbollah supply lines and high-value targets.
In January 2015, an
Israel Strike Killed an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps
commander Brig. Gen. Mohammad Ali Allahdadi and Hezbollah commanders Mohammad
Issa and Jihad Mughniyeh, the son of slain Hezbollah commander
Imad Mughniyeh
A retaliatory Hezbollah
operation on an Israeli patrol killed two soldiers. Skirmishes have continued
since and, in July, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Naghdi — head of Iranian Basij –
visited the Golan.
The dichotomy is that
anti-Assad fighters in the Golan both provide a temporary buffer for Israel
against Hezbollah but also grant Hezbollah an excuse and opportunity to
establish an operating base. It is becoming clear that, as Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan
Nasrallah declared, the Golan and southern Lebanon have
effectively become a single front moving forward.
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